Mankins mess a situation that bears watching
Football Betting Lines
07/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL's training camp season is once again approaching. Time for grueling two-a-days, the emergence of fantasy sleepers, and Brett Favre's annual yo-yo act with the inevitable familiar ending.
And of course, no summer in the National Football League would be complete without the time-honored tradition of contract squabbling between players and teams, usually resulting in contentious holdouts that pose a dangerous threat to the on- and off-field harmony the preseason programs are designed to achieve.
There's a particularly nasty situation brewing in New England, where the Patriots and All-Pro guard Logan Mankins are embroiled in a dispute that has shown no early signs of reaching a quick accord. Both parties have drawn lines in the sand, with the notoriously rigid Pats slashing Mankins' still-unsigned restricted free agent tender by over 50 percent, and the sixth-year pro sitting out last month's mandatory mini-camp in protest of the lack of progress on a long-term deal.
Mankins, one of more than 200 players who missed out on a chance for unrestricted free agency in the spring due to the league and its Players Association's failure to reach an agreement on a new collective bargaining plan, reportedly turned down a multi-year offer believed to average between $6.5 and $7 million per season from the Patriots a few months back. That's a nice chunk of change, especially at a position that rarely commands top dollars, but would still be dwarfed by the eye-opening seven-year, $56.7 million pact Jahri Evans -- a player with a similar experience level and credentials as Mankins -- received from the Super Bowl champion Saints in May.
New England countered by reducing Mankins' tender from $3.268 million (the highest amount a restricted free agent could receive this season) to $1.54 million (the minimum 10 percent raise over his 2009 salary), further heightening tensions between the two sides and showing the organization is going to take a hard-line stance on the matter.
That unyielding approach should come as no surprise, however. The Patriots were involved in a comparable situation with Deion Branch, then the team's No. 1 wide receiver, back in 2006, and also refused to budge as the equally-as- stubborn former Super Bowl MVP held out the entire preseason. New England eventually traded Branch to Seattle for a first-round draft choice, then replaced him by stealing a disgruntled Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders the following April. We all know how that move worked out.
The Patriots aren't averse to shipping off cornerstone players for monetary reasons either, as last year's startling trade of five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders will attest. And with Tom Brady's contract set to expire at the end of the season, owner Bob Kraft could be less willing to pony up the big bucks to keep Mankins alongside his franchise icon in the coming years.
New England was able to avoid a potential summer standoff with nose tackle Vince Wilfork by signing the premier run-stopper to a lucrative five-year contract back in March, which would seem to work in Mankins' favor at first glance. But with Brady likely to command a deal in the neighborhood of $20 million per season and the Patriots having morphed into a more pass-oriented team in recent years, having an elite run-blocker like Mankins on board could be viewed as more of a luxury than a necessity. And with the speedy emergence of 2009 rookie Sebastian Vollmer into a starting-caliber tackle, the club may be able to slide deposed starter Nick Kaczur into the left guard spot without a precipitous drop-off.
Mankins and his camp still seem to be steadfast in their demands despite the obvious risks, and appear more than willing to hold their ground as well.
"I'll tell you one thing, I'm old-school, he's old-school," agent Frank Bauer told the Boston Herald last week. "We're two highly principled guys. If everyone's making two bucks, I'll make two bucks. If everyone is making $8 million, I'm making $8 million."
At just 28 years old and unequivocally among the top three or four players at his position at the very least, Mankins stands a good chance of the big payday he's seeking. Just don't be surprised if it's with a team other than the Patriots.
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Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers announced the signing
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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