Football Betting

Carolina Panthers 2010 Season Preview

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08/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's hard to view the Carolina Panthers as anything but a team in limbo, and it's difficult to see 2010 as anything but a way station that precedes the organization's real future.

Start with the head coach, John Fox, who is in the final year of his contract and looks less than 50-50 to return in 2011, whether he wins this year or not. Though Fox is well-respected both inside and outside the organization, and has experienced periods of success, there is a growing sense that a change of scenery could be good for the coach, and a new voice could be good for the Panthers.

Move on to the quarterback situation, which is as tenuous as just about any in the league this side of Arizona. After parting ways with declining lynch pin Jake Delhomme, the team has placed at least temporary confidence in the 26- year-old Matt Moore. Moore's 4-1 record down the stretch last year inspired his elevation to the No. 1 role to begin '10, but the subsequent selection of Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike in the April draft seemed to signal that the Panthers were hedging their bets on Moore.

It is the second-round pick Clausen, not Moore, that looks like the team's future at the position, and the inevitability of his ascension to the starter's role will grow with every Moore misstep.

Meanwhile, Julius Peppers - the team's biggest defensive star and the player that instilled the most fear in opposing quarterbacks and coordinators - is now in Chicago following a rocky eight-year tenure with the Panthers. Though there is still defensive talent, most notably linebacker Jon Beason, the team made no meaningful effort to replace Peppers and a piece of its identity on that side of the ball is gone.

All of the above circumstances have relegated the Panthers to afterthought status in the NFC South, where the Saints are coming off a Super Bowl title and the Falcons have emerged as a 2010 conference dark horse. Though anonymous status is not necessarily a bad thing - remember that New Orleans was an 8-8 team one year before lifting the Lombardi Trophy - the mediocre, at-least-a- year-away perception of this team is something that is going to have to be fought both inside the locker room and out.

Publicly, Fox is putting on the expected brave face, saying the right things and arguing that the youth-and-inexperience movement that seems to define this team at the moment is a good thing.

"I think we've increased our team speed some," Fox said in the spring. "We've got a lot of youth and with youth comes energy, so that's the good news. Now we've just got to direct that energy in the right way."

Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Carolina Panthers, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2009 RECORD: 8-8 (3rd, NFC South)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2008, lost to Arizona, 33-13, in NFC Divisional Playoff

COACH (RECORD): John Fox (71-57 in eight seasons with Panthers, 71-57 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jeff Davidson

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Ron Meeks

OFFENSIVE STAR: Steve Smith, WR (65 receptions, 7 TD)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Jon Beason, LB (142 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 3rd rushing, 27th passing, 21st scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 22nd rushing, 4th passing, 9th scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Jimmy Clausen (2nd Round, Notre Dame), QB Tony Pike (6th Round, Cincinnati), RB Dantrell Savage (from Chiefs), WR Brandon LaFell (3rd Round, LSU), WR Armanti Edwards (3rd Round, Appalachian State), DT Ed Johnson (from Colts), LB Jamar Williams (from Bears), S Aaron Francisco (from Colts)

KEY DEPARTURES: QB Jake Delhomme (to Browns), QB A.J. Feeley (to Rams), QB Josh McCown (not tendered), FB Brad Hoover (released), WR Muhsin Muhammad (retired), G Keydrick Vincent (to Buccaneers), DE Julius Peppers (to Bears), DT Maake Kemoeatu (to Redskins), DT Damione Lewis (to Patriots), DT Hollis Thomas (not tendered), LB Na'il Diggs (to Rams), LB Landon Johnson (to Lions), CB Dante Wesley (to Lions), S Quinton Teal (to Seahawks), S Chris Harris (to Bears), K Rhys Lloyd (to Vikings)

QB: Moore (1053 passing yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) deserves the shot he is getting, and while the Panthers are hoping for the best in terms of his maturation into a No. 1 NFL quarterback, they also have a keen awareness of his limitations. The former undrafted free agent out of Oregon State would function best as a game-manager who is capable of making the big throw if he has to, which is what he was when the team had success last year. The Panthers are going to be a run- first team and the whole world knows it. Moore just has to keep people honest. If he can't, the Clausen era could begin sooner rather than later. Questions about his leadership abilities and struggles in big games hastened the ex-Notre Dame star's fall to the second round, but there's no doubt he's more physically gifted than Moore. One thing that could hold him back is his toe, on which Clausen had surgery in January but is still experiencing pain. The battle for third string-duties is between sixth-rounder Tony Pike (Cincinnati) and former Louisville triggerman Hunter Cantwell.

RB: Though 2009 will not rank among the most celebrated seasons in Panthers history, the team did make some positive history in an otherwise disappointing year. Running backs DeAngelo Williams (1117 rushing yards, 7 TD, 29 receptions) and Jonathan Stewart (1133 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 11 TD) became the first teammates in NFL annals to cross the 1,100-yard plateau in the same year, with Williams catching fire in the middle of the season and Stewart bringing the Panthers home with an outstanding December. Though the Panthers will ride the two backs hard again this year, their health could determine how far this team goes. Williams missed three games in '09 with knee and ankle problems, while Stewart (who entered the league with injury concerns) has been limited in the 2010 preseason by a bad Achilles'. Mike Goodson (49 rushing yards) looks like the third-string back, though his preseason ankle problems make it more likely that someone like holdover Tyrell Sutton (68 rushing yards, 6 receptions) or Chiefs castoff Dantrell Savage (45 rushing yards, 7 receptions with Kansas City) can make the team. The Panthers are high on second-year fullback Tony Fiammetta, whose play in place of the injured Brad Hoover last year made the longtime Panther expendable

WR/TE: When Moore has to throw the football, the presence of a very shaky receiving corps isn't likely to make things any easier for him. Steve Smith is still a star, and should be well past the broken arm that limited him in the preseason, but following Muhsin Muhammad's retirement it doesn't look like there's anyone taking the pressure off of him on the other side. Dwayne Jarrett (17 receptions, 1 TD) has simply not developed the way the Panthers had hoped, and rookies Brandon LaFell (LSU), Armanti Edwards (Appalachian State) and holdover Kenneth Moore (6 receptions) all elicit more promise at this stage than the ex-USC star. Others looking to make an impression are Jets castoff Wallace Wright (2 receptions with the Jets) and former Buccaneers second-round bust Dexter Jackson. Carolina looks to be in better shape at tight end, where Jeff King (25 receptions, 3 TD), Dante Rosario (26 receptions, 2 TD) and Gary Barnidge (12 receptions) are not a well-known group but are reliable. With the state of the wideout corps, look for all of the tight ends' numbers to increase.

OL: Though much of the focus will be on Moore and the rest of the skill- position players, you could argue that the 2010 Panthers will go as far as this group can take it. Though not often mentioned among the top trench groups in the league, Carolina gave up a modest 33 sacks a year ago and also paved the way for those two 1,100-yard rushers. Back to man the left tackle spot is Jordan Gross, who missed the final seven games of last year with a broken ankle but is solid when healthy (which until last year was always). Travelle Wharton, who slid to tackle when Gross was out, is back to line up at left guard while center Ryan Kalil and right tackle Jeff Otah are also back in place. The big change here is at right guard, where Keydrick Vincent is now starting for the rival Buccaneers and 2008 seventh-round pick Mackenzy Bernadeau is being asked to step in. Swing tackle Geoff Schwartz and fellow 2009 backup Garry Williams are also around should anything go wrong.

DL: Whether you're a fan of his attitude or not, there should be little question that at his best, Peppers provided an edge pass rushing presence that could be equaled by few around the league. Thus, it was surprising that Carolina made a minimal effort to replace him or three former interior line starters - Damione Lewis, Hollis Thomas and Maake Kemoeatu. The main guys off the edge are now lunchpail-type right end Tyler Brayton (45 tackles, 5 sacks), two former early-round picks who have yet to live up to their promise in Charles Johnson (25 tackles, 4 sacks) and Everette Brown (22 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and even younger players like sixth-round rookie Greg Hardy (Ole Miss). Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks is going to have to get mighty creative in finding ways to generate pressure. On the interior, the team took a major gamble in bringing in troubled former Colts tackle Ed Johnson (11 tackles with Indianapolis), who is expected to start alongside Louis Leonard (6 tackles, 1 sack), who missed most of last year with a broken ankle. Holdovers Tank Tyler (31 tackles), Nick Hayden (17 tackles, 1 sack) and 2009 third-round pick Corvey Irvin are trying to insert themselves into the interior mix as well. Irvin missed all of last year with a knee injury.

LB: The Panthers defense was struck a major blow in June, when weakside linebacker Thomas Davis was lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered at a team mini-camp. It is a testament to how important weak side coverage is in this scheme that the team subsequently moved star middle linebacker Jon Beason to Davis' spot, inserting backup Dan Connor (16 tackles) into the middle. The former Penn State star Connor is getting his first chance to play meaningful minutes after being drafted in the third-round back in 2008. On the strong side, James Anderson (58 tackles, 1 sack) is back after starting a career-high seven games a year ago. On the backup forces, holdover Jordan Senn (9 tackles), ex-Bear Jamar Williams (40 tackles with Chicago), and rookie fourth-rounder Eric Norwood (South Carolina) will likely garner most of their reps on special teams. Norwood could also see time up front as a situational pass rusher.

DB: There probably isn't an area on this defense that is more settled than the cornerback position. Chris Gamble (58 tackles, 4 INT) and Richard Marshall (83 tackles, 4 INT) are subject to occasional lapses, but on the whole do not make things easy for opposing QBs or wideouts. Captain Munnerlyn (42 tackles), a seventh-round pick in 2009, did a nice job last year and will also have a role. The safeties are a little shakier. Charles Godfrey (44 tackles, 1 INT), who is penciled in at strong safety, has been somewhat hit-or-miss over his two years in the league. At free safety, Sherrod Martin (19 tackles, 3 INT) is a second- year pro who must prove he is ready for his close-up after starting five games a year ago. Depth at safety will be provided by journeyman Aaron Francisco (9 tackles with Colts) and sixth-round rookie Jordan Pugh (Texas A&M).

SPECIAL TEAMS: No change in the kicking game, where 40-year-old John Kasay (22-27 FG) is moving up NFL scoring charts and solid punter Jason Baker (44.1 avg.) is also capable of handling kickoffs. Munnerlyn (9.0 avg.) did credible work on punt returns last year, but who returns kickoffs will probably be determined by the bottom of the depth chart at running back. Mike Goodson (20.7 avg.), Tyrell Sutton (21.6 avg.) and Dantrell Savage (20.0 avg. with the Chiefs) have experience in that realm, but ex-Jaguar Brian Witherspoon (22.9 kickoff return avg. with Jags and Lions) was brought in to compete as well. J.J. Jansen is back for a second season as the Panthers' long-snapper.

PROGNOSIS: The Carolina Panthers are a quality organization with a solid coaching staff, and their middling Q rating at the moment is not necessarily indicative of where they'll finish in 2010. After all, this team has defied preseason expectations more than once in its short history. At the very least, the Panthers are talented enough to be a tough out every week. But it's a stretch to think much will happen beyond that, with questions at quarterback, wideout, and within a defensive front seven that had its problems even with Peppers and Davis in the lineup a year ago. Something close to a .500 finish looks a strong possibility, as Carolina doesn't look like it can compete consistently with the Saints and Falcons in what might be Fox's final season on the job.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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